Probability
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Hello wonderful mathematics people.
This is Anna Cox from Kellogg Community College.
Probability computing Empirical probability.
The empirical probability of an event E donated by P of E is the
observed number of times E occurs divided by the total
number of observed occurrences or how frequently an event
occurs.
Computing theoretical probability, P of E is the
number of outcomes in event E divided by the number of
outcomes in the entire sample space S the probability of an
event not occurring P naughty E is equal to 1 -, P of E1 being
100% of the possible outcomes.
Probability or probabilities with mutually exclusive events.
If A&B are mutually exclusive events, then
probability of A or B is just equaling probability of A plus
probability of B.
You we can use set notation here.
So PA union B is PA plus PB probabilities with events that
are not mutually exclusive.
If A&B are not mutually exclusive events, then P of A or
B is P of A + P of B -, P of A&B.
We also can use set notation here probabilities with
independent events.
If A&B are independent events, then P of A&B is P
of A * P of B.
Let's look at some examples.
If we are given a graph of the marital status of the United
States population ages 18 or older in millions.
If we wanted to find it populate or the probability of a person
is divorced, we're going to look at the total of the divorce
21.7.
That's how many males and females over the total, so 21.7
/ 22.5 or about 10% probability that a person is divorced.
If we wanted a widowed male, we're going to look at the
widowed male 2.7 over the total again, so 2.7 / 212.5 or
approximately .01.
So if we chose a person randomly, we would have the
probability that they were a widowed male being about 1% or
.01.
How about among those who are divorced, the probability of
selecting a woman?
So now we're going to look at divorced women versus the total
divorce.
So 12.7 / 21.7 or approximately .59 or 59%.
If we took the group of divorced people and we just randomly
chose a divorced person, it'd be 59% likely that it would be a
female.
A die is rolled.
What's the probability of getting A2?
Well, twos occur one out of six times, so the probability of
getting A2 is 1/6.
We could also think of this as the probability of not getting a
2 taken away from 1:00.
So if we had one minus the probability of not getting A2,
there are five other numbers that occur, or 1 -, 5 six, hence
16.
What about the probability of getting a number greater than 4?
Well, we might get a 5 or we might get a six, and the
probability of getting A5 is 1/6 and the probability of getting
A6 is 1/6.
So 1/6 plus 1626 or one third.
We could also do this by the probability of not getting.
If we had one, we could not get a 5 or 6.
So we'd have, if we had a one out of six or A2 on the roll, or
a three on the roll or a four on the roll, we would have 1 -, 4
six, which would also be 1/3.
How about the probability of a number less than zero?
Well, on the die we have to have one through 6.
So that's going to actually be a 0 probability 2 numbers whose
sum is 4.
So looking at the possibilities, we can see that 1322 and three
one are the only possibilities that give us a sum of 4.
So 3 out of the total possibilities of 36 or 112th.
How about two numbers whose sum is 7?
That's going to be this diagonal here.
123456 6 out of 36, or one sixth probability that your sum is 7.
Two numbers whose sum is one.
We can't get a sum of 1.
The smallest we could get is 2, so 0 / 36 or a probability of 0.
A poker hand consists of five cards.
Find the total number of possible 5 card poker hands.
So if we have 52 cards in our deck and we want to choose five
of them, we'd have 52 factorial over 52 -.
5 factorial times 5 factorial, or 2,598,960.
So that's the total number of possible 5 card poker hands.
What if we wanted a diamond flush?
A diamond flush is A5 card hand consisting of all diamonds.
So now instead of 52 cards, we're going to choose amount of
13 cards.
So we want all 5 cards to be diamonds.
SO13C5 or 13 factorial over 13 -.
5 factorial times 5 factorial 1287.
Find the probability of being dealt a diamond flush.
Well the diamond flush is going to be the probability of getting
a diamond flush out of the possible poker hands total.
So it's about .0005 or .05% standard deck of cards.
What's the probability of not drawing an ace?
Well, one hole minus there are 4 aces in a deck, so 1 hole -4 out
of the 52 or 1 minus 113th.
So the probability of drawing something, probability of not
drawing an ace is 12 thirteenths.
How about probability of not drawing a picture card?
Well, how many picture cards are in a deck?
We have the Jack, the Queen, and the King, so there's three in
each suit.
So there's 12 picture cards out of a total of 52.
So 1 -, 12 / 52, which is going to give us 1 -, 3 thirteenths or
10 thirteenths.
We could also think of these if we wanted to think about how
many cards are not picture cards.
So if there are 13 in a suit and three of them are picture cards,
we know that 10 thirteenths would be how many are left?
How about brought probability of a red card or A7?
Well, there are 26 red cards.
There's diamonds and hearts.
There's also 4 sevens in a deck.
Now two of those sevens happen to read red cards, so we need to
subtract the two that are repeats.
So here we're going to get 2650 twos plus 4 -, 2 and that's
going to give us 2850 twos.
And if we reduce that, we're going to get 7 thirteenths.
Thank you and have a wonderful day.